Thomas’ UFC 191 Breakdowns

Main Event – Johnson vs Dodson

This UFC main event has FIRE written all over it. I want the UFC to play that Van Halen “Fire in the Hole” track to introduce this dandy of a matchup. I’m telling you folks this has that potential to be a fight of the year candidate. Plus it has that fantastic rematch component to it where you know Dodson has been trying to earn his shot back into this position so that he can beat up Johnson because frankly, he can.

What to expect.

On Johnson’s End

The dude is a masterful tactician and has won 8 fights in row. He’s currently (arguably of course) THE BEST and most well rounded tactician in MMA. He has an incredibly diverse and lucrative skill set REGARDLESS of where this fight goes. Since Dodson has fantastic power, expect Johnson to utilize boxing circling, strong defence strategies (similar to that fading away/elusive style you see from Mayweather, except MMA oriented in nature) and to go for the takedown if Dodson overexerts his forward balance trying to land the knock out shot.

On Dodson’s End

Dodson hits like a heavyweight. For a guy in this weight class to throw as hard and land as often as Dodson does is just mesmerizing. Expect Dodson to land huge shots at a decent rate and possibly even drop Johnson at times, because those punches pack C4 in them. I wouldn’t expect him to slow down either throughout the fight as he knows how strong Johnson is in the cardio department, so expect Dodson to not wear out early and instead conserve his energy as his best chance to win is via the KO.

Prediction

I see Johnson winning by submission. I would assume sometime surrounding the later portions of the fight (round 3, 4 or 5). Mighty Mouse could tire Dodson out on the ground and work a rear naked.

Co-Main Event – Mir vs Arlovski

Admittedly, this is an odd one to consider because just 4 years back Arlovski was journeying around in different promotions, trying to re-establish himself as a heavyweight contender. Meanwhile, Frank Mir didn’t win for nearly two years between summer 2012 and February 2014, seemingly drifting towards the  “retire or get cut” list. Now both are back and it’s time to see which veteran is better suited for a last crack at a title run.

What to expect

On Arlovski’s End

This guy never shies away from a fight and absolutely won’t against Frank Mir. This is the guy that KO’d by Fedor because he leapt in for a flying knee and got caught. He will engage Mir in boxing and will throw leg kicks and try to force Mir into a brawl, where Arlovski excels and can unleash his relentless power. In some ways, whenever I watch an Arlovski fight I say, expect punches and kicks thrown, however from that point on just expect the unexpected.

On Frank Mir’s End

He continues to impress even though he’s getting older and doesn’t show the quickness he used to have, but he has adapted, continued to improve in striking and engaging techniques. His ground game has also consistently broken people too… literally, like more than once. Don’t be surprised if he takes it to the ground and/or has some top-notch exchanges with the “Pitbull.”

Prediction

Expect Mir to win via old faithful in this one and continue his journey into the UFC records books. Good ol’ submission (Round 2ish, before it gets too sweaty in there) and because it might get “scrambly” in nature, I’m going with a heel hook or kemura.

3 things to look out for at UFC 191!

A streak is due

Jessica Andrade is known to lose a fight and then proceeds to go on a solid winning streak of at least 2 or 3 or even more. I expect her to keep her momentum going after her win from UFC Fight Night in July (where Mir also fought) and take home a win.

Warzone

Johnson vs Manuwa probably will not last long and your screen might get cracked due to the incidental earthquake that will happen when these 2 decide to launch the fist-version of tomahawk missiles at each other. Godzilla vs Mothra infrastructure damage may occur, so plan accordingly!

“A New Player Has Entered the Game”

Watch for the emergence of the pretty, yet lethal “12 Gauge”. She is still a developmental project and has some holes in her game, mostly due to inexperience, every fight she improves in each MMA department in terms of timing and technique. I wouldn’t be surprised if she pulls out some new weapons that are now available in her arsenal. Win or lose, she’ll be entertaining and might even win in spectacular fashion.

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